How Domestic Power Struggles Shape Tanzania’s Foreign Policy

Dr Georg Lammich

1 April 2026

Credit: adobe.stock.com / butenkow

How can domestic politics shape a country’s foreign policy?

Why do states sometimes make foreign policy choices that appear contradictory, abrupt, or difficult to explain through national interest alone? Tanzania’s recent diplomatic history offers some insights. Rather than being driven solely by ideology, leadership personality, or global pressures, foreign policy can be shaped by domestic power struggles. Understanding who holds power, how elite coalitions are organised, and which groups leaders must satisfy can help explain why states engage, withdraw, cooperate, or confront.

This blog post explores how Tanzania’s foreign policy has shifted over the past decade by looking inside the country’s political settlement. A political settlement refers to the balance of power between elites and influential social groups, and the informal bargains that keep a political order stable. When that balance changes, policies often change with it. Tanzania provides a good example. The transition from President John Magufuli to President Samia Suluhu Hassan was not only a change of leadership. It was a reconfiguration of domestic power. That shift helps explain why Tanzania moved from a more confrontational and inward looking foreign policy to one that emphasises diplomacy, regional cooperation and renewed engagement with international partners.

Looking at Tanzania through the lens of political settlements allows us to move beyond personality driven explanations and instead understand foreign policy as a tool for managing domestic power.

Political settlements and foreign policy

Political settlements analysis starts from a simple but powerful idea. Politics is not only about formal institutions like constitutions or elections. It is also about informal agreements among powerful actors over who gets access to resources, authority, and influence. These agreements are rarely written down, but they shape how states actually function. In many countries, especially in Africa, political stability depends on maintaining elite cohesion. Leaders must constantly manage relationships within ruling parties, security institutions, business networks, and social groups that can mobilise support or disruption. Policies, including foreign policy, are often chosen not because they are optimal in an abstract sense, but because they help sustain these domestic bargains. Foreign policy analysis has traditionally focused on external pressures or on leaders’ beliefs. Political settlements analysis adds another layer. It asks which domestic actors benefit from a particular foreign policy stance and how international engagement can strengthen or weaken a ruling coalition.

In Tanzania, foreign policy has long been shaped by domestic political priorities. From the socialist era of Julius Nyerere to the economic diplomacy of the early 2000s, shifts in external orientation have reflected changes in elite alliances at home. This pattern became especially visible during the presidencies of John Magufuli and Samia Suluhu Hassan.

From centralisation to recalibration

John Magufuli came to power in 2015 as an unexpected compromise candidate within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi. Once in office, he rapidly centralised authority. He weakened established party factions, sidelined powerful business networks, and concentrated decision making in the presidency. His political settlement was narrow, highly personalised, and reliant on popular support rather than elite consensus.

This domestic configuration had clear foreign policy consequences. Magufuli adopted a confrontational stance toward foreign investors, especially in the extractive sector. His government passed laws asserting greater state control over natural resources, restricted access to international arbitration, and publicly accused foreign companies of exploitation. These moves played well with his domestic support base and weakened rival elite networks that had benefited from earlier investment friendly policies. Magufuli also distanced Tanzania from several international commitments. The withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the reduced engagement with multilateral initiatives reflected a broader effort to shield the government from external scrutiny. International institutions were seen as potential threats to regime control rather than as partners.

When Samia Suluhu Hassan assumed the presidency in 2021, the political settlement shifted again. Unlike her predecessor, she depended on rebuilding elite consensus within the ruling party, re integrating sidelined actors, and restoring trust with bureaucratic and business communities. This required a different foreign policy. Under Hassan, Tanzania initially returned to a more cooperative diplomatic posture. The government actively courted foreign investors, repaired relations with Western partners, and re engaged with regional and global institutions. While recent developments suggest a tightening of political space at home, this outward facing diplomatic approach has largely remained intact. These shifts were not simply a matter of personal preference but reflected the need to stabilise a broader ruling coalition through economic growth, international legitimacy, and continued engagement with external partners.

A vignette from Tanzania’s mining sector

The mining sector offers a concrete illustration of how political settlements shape foreign policy. Under Magufuli, mining became a symbol of sovereignty and national pride. Foreign owned mining companies were targeted with fines, regulatory changes, and public criticism. International arbitration mechanisms were curtailed, and the state asserted greater ownership stakes in mining operations. These policies were popular domestically and helped Magufuli consolidate power. They weakened established business elites and signalled a break from the patronage networks associated with previous administrations. At the same time, they created uncertainty for investors and strained Tanzania’s relations with key economic partners.

Under President Hassan, the approach has softened. While the government has not fully reversed the regulations introduced under Magufuli, it has emphasised dialogue, predictability, and partnership. Tanzania has reopened negotiations with major mining companies and signalled a willingness to balance state interests with investor confidence. This shift reflects the logic of a different political settlement. Hassan’s coalition includes actors who benefit from foreign investment and international engagement. Foreign policy in this sector has therefore become a tool for stabilising elite relations and supporting the government’s development agenda.

Why this matters beyond Tanzania

Tanzania’s experience highlights a broader lesson for understanding foreign policy in Africa and beyond. Foreign policy is not only about responding to the international system. It is also about managing domestic power. Political settlements analysis helps explain why states sometimes pursue policies that seem economically costly or diplomatically isolating, and why those policies can change rapidly when domestic coalitions shift. It reminds us that foreign policy choices are often shaped by the need to maintain political order at home.

For students and observers of African politics, this perspective encourages a more grounded analysis of international behaviour. Rather than asking only what a country wants on the global stage, we should also ask who inside the country benefits from a particular stance and how international engagement feeds into domestic political survival. As Tanzania continues to navigate internal political dynamics and external pressures, its foreign policy will likely remain closely tied to the evolving balance of power at home. Understanding that connection is essential for making sense of both past shifts and future choices.

Reference:

This blog post is based on: Lammich G. Understanding foreign policy through political settlements: insights from Tanzania. The Journal of Modern African Studies. 2025;63(3):183-206. 

Author bio

Dr. Georg Lammich is a senior researcher in International Relations and African Politics at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany, where he is affiliated with the Institute for Political Science. Since April 2022, he has been working on the DFG-funded ChiTA (China and the Transformation of Political Order in Africa) project.